Dynamic Urban Water Security Index: The Ulaanbaatar Case

The Urban Water Security Index (UWSI) is a critical tool for assessing urban water resilience and security, especially under the increasing impacts of climate change. Traditional UWSI models often overlook dynamic factors such as population growth and climate variability, which can significantly affect urban water demand and supply. This dissertation introduces a novel approach that integrates various static and multi-criteria methods alongside advanced statistical modeling techniques, including time series analysis, sensitivity analysis, regression analysis, and scenario-based Monte Carlo simulation, to capture the complexities of UWSI under different scenarios. In this research, the UWSI model is adapted to account for these dynamic variables, providing a more comprehensive picture of urban water security. The study focuses on the capital of Mongolia, Ulaanbaatar, a city facing unique climatic and demographic challenges. Key steps involve (a) calculating and projecting the UWSI over multiple years using time series analysis to reflect trends in water demand and supply, (b) conducting sensitivity analysis to determine which variables most strongly influence UWSI, using correlation and variance-based methods, (c) performing dynamic scenario analysis through Monte Carlo simulations under various climate scenarios to assess the impact of temperature and precipitation changes, and (d) employing regression analysis to quantify interrelationships between demographic and environmental variables. Finally, an analysis of alternatives provides a strategic framework for adaptation solutions, tailored to Ulaanbaatar’s socio-economic and environmental context. The thesis enhances UWSI modeling by integrating statistical techniques that allow for a dynamic and deeper understanding of urban water security, providing policymakers with actionable insights for sustainable and climate-resilient water management.