Latent Class Categorization of Academic Performance Trajectories and Their Influencing Factors among Youth during the Elementary–Middle School Transition

This study investigated Korean youth’s transition from elementary to middle school and classified their academic performance trajectories as well as identified influencing factors. Data were extracted from the Panel Study on Korean Children (waves 12–15, n= 1,023) and underwent latent class growth analysis and multinomial logistic regression. Findings showed that these students experienced three trajectory types: high-stable (51.8%), high-declining (36.5%), and moder ate-declining (11.7%). The high-declining group showed a sharp drop from Grade 6 to Grade 7, while the moderate-declining group showed a gradual decrease from a lower baseline. Multinomial logistic regression results indicated that compared with the high-stable group, the likelihood of joining the high-declining group was higher for males, students with lower parental education, higher academic stress in Grade 6, and lower private tutoring expenditure in Grade 6 but lower for those with higher academic engagement in Grade 7. For the moderate-declining group, the likelihood increased for males, lower parental education, higher academic stress in Grade 6, and lower academic engagement in Grade 6; interestingly, higher Grade 6 teacher relationship was also associated with group membership. These findings suggest the need to implement targeted school-based support and policy interventions to mitigate academic decline during school transitions. Based on these results, this study also presents discussions and policy implications.