Estimation of Live Fish Demand Function－A 2SLS Approach to the Substitution Relationship between Imported Seafood and Meat－

This study empirically analyzes the impact of economic factors on live fish consumption in the Korean market, focusing on demand elasticity and substitution relationships in response to price changes. Monthly data from 2015 to 2023 were utilized, and a panel two-stage least squares(2SLS) model was applied to address the endogeneity of live fish prices, with electricity prices serving as an instrumental variable. The results show that the price elasticity of live fish demand is －2.18, indicating that a 1% increase in price leads to an approximate 2.18% decrease in consumption. This finding highlights the strong sensitivity of live fish demand to price fluctuations. Rising prices of domestic and imported beef were associated with increased live fish consumption, suggesting a significant substitution effect. In contrast, the price of imported salmon showed a positive but statistically insignificant effect. Similarly, income was found to have no significant impact on consumption. Seasonal variation was also evident, as consumption tended to decline in the summer months(July∼August) and rise in December. These findings suggest that live fish consumption is shaped by both price dynamics and seasonal patterns. The results provide important implications for policymakers and industry stakeholders seeking to stabilize demand, respond to seasonal supply shifts, and design effective consumer-oriented strategies.