Crop Modelling: Guiding Agriculture Towards Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation

Abstract Climate change is among the greatest threats to global food security with agriculture both a major victim of and contributor to greenhouse gases (GHGs) emissions. Rising temperature, elevated CO2 and rainfall variability directly affect crop yields, while indirect effects through pests, diseases and resource competition further complicate outcomes. To anticipate and mitigate these risks, crop models have become essential tools for integrating climate, soil and management variables into yield projections and adaptation planning. Various models are designed to assess climate change impacts, guide mitigation strategies and build resilient cropping systems. These models demonstrate climate – smart practices to reduce GHGs emission through soil, crop and livestock systems, including soil carbon management, optimized fertilizer use, methane reduction in rice and livestock feeding innovations, offering strong potential for agricultural mitigation as well as adaptation. However, challenges remain high due to high input data requirements, uncertainties in long – term projections and socio – economic barriers, thereby highlighting the importance of multi – scale, data driven approaches. Keywords: crop models, climate change, mitigation, adaptation