Mangrove restoration and blue carbon potential in Odisha: Bridging ecosystem services with climate resilience

Mangrove ecosystems along Odisha’s coastline act as frontline defenses against climate volatility, shielding communities and supporting rich biodiversity. This study synthesizes 25 years of research (2000–2025) and employs the InVEST model to assess ecological restoration outcomes, including carbon capture, water quality gains, and future climate risks. Field data indicate sequestration rates of 7.3–10.9 tonnes of carbon per hectare annually. Projections reveal that, by 2030, optimized restoration could add 1.55 million tonnes of carbon (5.7 Mt CO₂), while ongoing degradation risks re-releasing over 2 million tonnes. Scenario modeling to 2050 highlights resilience thresholds: moderate emissions support net uptake (+0.85 Tg C), whereas high-emission pathways reverse the trend (–0.45 Tg C). Restoration practices also reduce sediment runoff by 25 % and nutrient loading by 8 %, improving coastal water quality. Cyclone-buffering valuation in Kendrapara estimates avoided damages between USD 4,335–43,352 per hectare. Governance analysis uncovers fragmented institutional roles as a barrier, while women-led Village Mangrove Councils improve sapling survival by 30 %, showcasing inclusive stewardship. To scale success, Odisha must embed mangrove targets in climate policy, adopt MRV-compliant carbon accounting, engage voluntary markets, and implement adaptive planting methods using raised beds and salt-tolerant species. This place-based model offers replicable restoration pathways for tropical coastal deltas globally, aligning ecological restoration with climate resilience and social equity.