Evaluating Iranian Pistachio Export Potential: A Comprehensive Analysis Utilizing the Random Border Gravity Model

The currency fluctuations and trade deficit in Iran's net agricultural exports highlight the need for policy measures to boost agricultural exports. The agricultural sector not only plays a key role in ensuring food security but also significantly contributes to economic development and non-oil exports in the country. This study estimates the determinants of export efficiency and export potential of Iran's pistachios to 32 trading partners from 2011 to 2022, using the Stochastic Frontier Gravity Model. Export potential represents the highest possible export volume a country can attain when trade restrictions are removed, offering valuable insight into its untapped opportunities in global markets. The estimated model results indicate that the economic size of Iran and its trading partners has a positive impact, while the distance between capitals exerts a negative influence on exports of the studied product. The estimation results further indicate that variables including population size, shared borders, and membership in trade agreements contribute positively to Iran's pistachio exports. In contrast, factors such as economic sanctions, exchange rate volatility, and religious differences show no statistically significant impact on trade flows. Also, it is confirmed that export efficiency reached its peak average during the 2014-2017 period. The K-mean model shows that the trading partners were segmented into five distinct clusters, leading to the key policy recommendation that decision-makers should prioritize neighboring markets while enhancing trade relations through bilateral agreements and multilateral frameworks.