Analysis of Elementary School Needs Based on Projections of School Age Population Growth in the City of Surabaya (Study of Educational Planning Using the Social Demand Method)

Effective education planning requires a data-driven approach, particularly in responding to the growth dynamics of the primary-school-age population. This research aims to analyze the need for elementary schools in the city of Surabaya based on projections of the population aged 7–12 years with a social demand approach. The research used a qualitative descriptive method using quantitative calculation techniques using the Sprague Multiplier method, which functions to convert five-yearly age group data into single age data for estimating the primary school age population. Based on projection results, the number of children aged 7–12 years in the city of Surabaya reached 265,003 people. School needs analysis is carried out by referring to two standards, namely the National Education Standard (SNP) and the Minimum Service Standard (SPM). The results show that 1,577 primary schools are needed if using SNP (28 students per class) and 1,380 schools if using SPM (32 students per class). The findings emphasize the need for adaptive and planned education policies, taking into account standard student-to-class ratios, demographic distribution, as well as the availability of educational infrastructure. It is hoped that this projection-based planning can become the basis for preparing a more responsive and sustainable basic education policy in the city of Surabaya.