The Adaptive Innovation Cycle Law

Innovation, as a collective process of discovery, adoption, and transformation, follows cyclical dynamics that intertwine exploration of the new with exploitation of the stable. This paper introduces the Adaptive Innovation Cycle (AIC) Law, a quantitative model describing how innovation evolves as a field of informational density and coherence. The theory links micro-scale behavior of agents to macro-scale systemic transformations using field-theoretic and game-dynamic formalism.We propose a coupled set of equations capturing adoption density, coordination potential, helicity (polarization), and systemic memory, leading to a stability criterion expressed through a Lyapunov-like functional. A hypothetical case of quantum supremacy achieved by a non-state actor illustrates how innovation-induced bifurcations emerge and propagate across social, political, and economic layers. The model provides early-warning indicators for tipping points in technological and institutional systems.