Impact of climate change on endemic birds of the Indian Subcontinent: ecological consequences and challenges

The increase in global temperature may pose a risk of extinction to many endemic bird species of the Subcontinent by the end of the 21st century. This region, being ranked as one of the most vulnerable regions to climate change, is experiencing the shifting and contraction of species ranges. The distribution data on four endemic bird species (sub-continent) viz. Ardeotis nigriceps, Dendrocopos assimilis, Passer pyrrhonotus, and Terpsiphone paradisi, were studied regarding their present and future habitat suitability in the ongoing climate change scenario. We used present and future climate variables from Worldclim and occurrence records obtained from GBIF in the present study. To simulate the present (normal range for 1980-2019) while for future (2050 and 2070) species distribution, we used the model maximum entropy approach (MaxEnt) and generalized linear model (GLM) by using to future peak scenarios of carbon emission RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 and two circulation models for 2050 and 2070. Our results showed that under these two climate scenarios, the distribution of species projected towards the altitudes of the east and north, and the latitudes of the north. As well as the accuracy of our species distribution model, it predicted the high climatic suitability towards altitudes of the east and north regions of the Subcontinent for endemic species. Across the eastern regions, one-third that was projected to drop by the end of 2050 as well as one-half by the end of 2070 of the present habitat. Our study highlighted the risks for endemic species of the subcontinent due to future environmental changes, and such findings are useful for policymakers to moderate the negative effects of future climate on these species within the Subcontinent.