ANALYZING MOROCCO'S MONETARY POLICY RESPONSE TO EXTERNAL SHOCKS: A VAR MODEL APPROACH

Abstract This article explores the ability of Moroccan monetary policy to cope with external shocks through an econometric analysis based on a VAR model. The study uses quarterly data covering the period 2010–2023 and incorporates five key macroeconomic variables: inflation, real GDP growth, the policy rate, the real effective exchange rate, and the price of oil. Using the ordinary least squares (OLS) method, the article examines the dynamic responses of these variables to internal and external shocks, while assessing the scope and limitations of monetary policy in an economic context marked by increasing openness to international markets. The results reveal a significant transmission of the policy rate to inflation, confirming the existence of a monetary policy channel operating in the short term. However, the impact of the policy rate on growth remains limited, highlighting the need for greater synergy between monetary policy and structural policies. At the same time, the influence of external variables, particularly oil prices, appears dominant in price and exchange rate dynamics, highlighting the Moroccan economy's vulnerability to imported shocks. The study also highlights significant inertia in macroeconomic variables, reflecting a certain rigidity in adjustment mechanisms. Ultimately, the article calls for strengthening coordination between various economic policy instruments and improving mechanisms for anticipating external shocks. It also provides a solid methodological basis for future research focused on structural models and the assessment of transmission regimes in emerging economies.