Удосконалена методика прогнозування наслідків надзвичайних ситуацій терористичного характеру на гідротехнічних спорудах

Formulation of the problem in general. In the conditions of full-scale aggression, there is a threat of targeted damage to hydraulic structures by the armed forces of the Russian Federation, because during the entire period of military operations, the enemy quite often uses weapons against the civilian population, destroys critical infrastructure with the use of air strikes. Thus, the study of the factors of the destruction of hydrotechnical structures and the prediction of the consequences of such destruction are currently extremely relevant. The aim of the article is the improvement of the method of forecasting the consequences of emergencies of a terrorist nature at hydraulic facilities Research methods. During the research the COASTOX hydrodynamic simulation model was employed, which is based on the Saint-Venant shallow water equations solving on the unstructured triangle grids, a method of predicting water motion condition, statistical methods of the demolition extent and the fracture mode estimation, the number of affected population in areas where emergencies occur, attributed to hydraulic facilities destruction. The above-mentioned methodological approach gives the opportunity to expand limits of the predicted appraisal with simultaneous analysis of the impact of the consequences of the emergency both on civilians, critical infrastructure and on the effectiveness of use of military equipment and weapons in areas of active and passive terrain flooding. Analysis of recent researches and publications. Modern Ukrainian scientists D. Stefanyshyn, Yu. Ubaidulaev and V. Burbashyn. At the same time, in the vast majority of works on this topic, an important factor is not taken into account - the limitation of the maneuverability of the troops in case of overwetting of the soil, insufficient attention is paid to taking into account the heterogeneity of the built-up density of settlements and the population density of the areas where emergency situations occur. In general, there is a need to continue researching the problematic issues of forecasting the consequences of emergency situations on hydrotechnical structures. Presenting the main material. The article presents an improved methodology, in contrast to the existing ones, it additionally takes into account the decrease in the passability of the area outside the roads in case of overwetting of different categories of soil, the heterogeneity of the density of the built-up area in the urbanized area and the population density of the areas of emergency situations within the flood zones during the destruction of hydrotechnical structures. The methodology is based on the modeling of the parameters of flood zones during the destruction of different types of railways and the degree of their damage due to enemy terrorist attacks, which makes it possible to determine the conditions of off-road traffic, the impact of the consequences of an emergency on civil infrastructure and the civilian population, and to increase the accuracy of forecasted estimates. The proposed Methodology is of significant importance for the theory and practice of the field of civil protection and can be used both for conducting scientific research and for conducting practical calculations when forecasting the scale and scope of the negative impact of the consequences of the destruction of hydrotechnical structures. The performed calculations using the improved Methodology made it possible to verify and confirm the adequacy of the considered scientific and methodological apparatus. Elements of scientific novelty. The article provides a set of interrelated methods for the research of problematic issues of forecasting the consequences of emergencies of a terrorist nature on hydraulic facilities, which meaningfully included into the indicated method. Unlike the existing ones, this method additionally takes into account the decrease of trafficability outside the roads in the case of soil waterlogging of various categories, urban density heterogeneity, population density of the areas of emergencies appearance within flooded zones at the time of hydraulic facilities destruction which enables to determine the conditions of the off road traffic, the impact of the consequences on the civilian infrastructure and the civilian population and increase the accuracy of the predicted estimates Theoretical and practical significance of the article. The offered method is of the essence for the theory and practice of civil protection and may be used both for scientific research and for practical calculations in forecasting the scale of the negative impact of the consequences of the destruction of hydraulic structures. The conducted calculations using the improved method enabled to verify and confirm the adequacy of the considered scientific and methodological apparatus. Conclusion and the perspectives of future researches. The performed calculations using the improved Methodology made it possible to verify and confirm the adequacy of the considered scientific and methodological apparatus. The direction of further research is the development of practical recommendations for minimizing the consequences of emergency situations of a terrorist nature on Ukraine's hydrotechnical structures.