Profiling risk in South Africa's just transition: Who is left behind?

The global shift away from coal has major implications for South African coal mine workers. As part of efforts to support a just transition, this paper presents a national-level profile and risk assessment of over 47,000 coal workers across 33 mines in five provinces. Drawing on mine-level Social and Labour Plans (SLPs), spatial tax income data, and technical mine data, we assess education, employment status, income levels, and risk of job loss due to mine closure. We find that 43 % of the workforce are contract workers, who are especially vulnerable due to lower education levels and weaker job protections. Over half of all workers are unskilled or semi-skilled, limiting re-employment prospects. Coal mine worker incomes are 55 % higher than average municipal earnings, underscoring the economic risks of transition. A mine-level risk rating identifies four municipalities in Mpumalanga as hotspots. While over USD 260 million is budgeted for skills development and local investment, questions remain about implementation and transparency. This analysis helps identify where and for whom the risks of transition are highest, offering useful insights for policymakers aiming to target support for a just transition in South Africa. • Social and Labour Plans analyzed for 33 coal mines with 47,100 coal workers • Permanent and contract workers compared by gender, race, origin and education • Coal worker income analyzed across municipalities • Mine site-level risk assessment of all coal workers in transition • Spatial mapping identifies hotspots of coal phase-down in South Africa.