Climate Change and Rainfall Variability: A Case Study of Gwagwalada, Federal Capital Territory, Abuja, Nigeria

Climate change significantly alters rainfall patterns globally, with far-reaching implications for ecosystems, agriculture, and human settlements. Nigeria, particularly the rapidly urbanizing area of Gwagwalada, remains highly vulnerable to climate-related hazards. This study assesses changes in rainfall patterns in Gwagwalada by examining trends, variability, and extremes using historical climate data and statistical analysis. Results revealed that the highest monthly rainfall amount during the study period was 469.4 mm, recorded in August 2007, while the lowest monthly rainfall amount (≥1 rainy day) was 2.2 mm, observed in November 2008, and again in February and November 2017. The number of rainy months per year ranged between seven and ten. In 2010, a total of 1333.1 mm of rainfall was received over seven months, whereas in 2018, 1131.1 mm was recorded across ten months. This indicates that rainfall amount is not necessarily dependent on the duration of the rainy season. These findings highlight the variability and unpredictability of rainfall in the study area and provide valuable insights for policymakers, urban planners, and stakeholders. Ultimately, the objective of this research is to enhance understanding of rainfall dynamics in Gwagwalada in order to support the development of climate-resilient strategies for sustainable agriculture, ecosystem management, and urban development.