LAND USE CHANGE AND PLANNING COMPLIANCE IN LAGOS: ASSESSING ZONING RULES AND DRIVERS OF NON-COMPLIANCE

Rapid urbanization in Lagos has produced profound shifts in land use, often diverging from officially designatedzoning rules. This study investigates the nature and extent of land use change between 2000 and 2025 and examinesthe socio-economic, institutional, and spatial drivers of zoning non-compliance. Using supervised classification ofLandsat 8 and 9 and Sentinel-2 time series, post-classification change detection techniques, and overlays with officialzoning maps and building permit records, we identify both compliant and non-compliant land developments. Spatialeconometric models are employed to analyze the determinants of non-compliance across Lagos’ local governmentareas. Findings reveal that land use conversion from wetlands and peri-urban agricultural zones into residential andmixed-use developments is the dominant trend, with nearly 42% of observed developments occurring outside zoningallocations. Drivers of non-compliance include weak enforcement capacity, high population density, proximity totransport corridors, and speculative land markets. The study underscores the critical need for more adaptive urbanplanning frameworks, enhanced enforcement, and the integration of remote sensing and geospatial monitoring inpolicy implementation.