Early warning signals for Cyclone Alfred (2025): a moisture–convection co-burst precursor and an anomalous track in the 2024–25 Australian season

Cyclone Alfred stood out from a total of 32 storms in the NOAA IBTrACS data collection for the SP and SI basins in the 2024-2025 season. It traversed an extremely unusual path, diverting south as far as the Queensland/New South Wales border, before crossing the coast. Around 3rd March, it sustained co-bursts of increased water vapour and decreased outgoing longwave radiation over a 24 hour period, the only storm to do so with concerted bursts in water vapour, accompanied by large drops in outgoing radiation. This was followed by large rises in pressure drops ahead and wind shear. This signal was extremely clear, as it was not found in another cyclone in the 2024-2025 season.