Electromagnetic Warfare Intentional Interference: Victim Risk Assessment

Preventing an adversary’s electromagnetic (EM) equipment from fully functioning via “Intentional Electromagnetic Interference” (IEMI) is strategically beneficial but technically complicated because optimal decisions on emitted signal frequency/power require unknown/unknowable knowledge of target systems’ EM architecture. Further complications are complex EM environment topologies and target location uncertainty. Additionally, IEMI aimed at targets is somewhat indiscriminate because emitted signals potentially interfere with non-target EM systems (e.g., civilian or allied), called victims. Determining the appropriate IEMI target-focussed signal emission strategy, involves complicated decision-making processes involving comprehending victim risks. This requires a quantitative risk assessment method (QRAM). This article describes the development of a novel QRAM utilising a Monte Carlo technique for calculating probabilities of degradation to victim systems to calculate victim risk within complex, dynamic, uncertain environments, potentially enabling risk-informed decisions on attack options. Its novelty is the combination of methodologies, with an approach extending beyond merely physical aspects (i.e., propagation of EM waves, or their physical interaction with individual systems), to include other critical aspects, allowing generation of simple metrics representing the likely consequence, in a context that can be directly exploited by decision makers.