Is the Negative Correlation between Manufacturing Firms’ Performance and ESG Ratings an Isolated Case or Common? — Taking Listed Companies in Anhui Province as an Example

Under China’s "dual-carbon" target, ESG ratings play an increasingly vital role in evaluating the sustainable development of manufacturing enterprises. This study investigates whether the negative correlation between ESG ratings and firm performance is a widespread phenomenon or a regional anomaly, using a sample of 127 listed manufacturing firms in Anhui Province. Employing Kendall’s tau-b correlation and distributional analysis, we find that firm performance negatively correlates with ESG ratings and that this relationship follows a normal distribution. These results suggest that the mismatch between ESG scores and firm outcomes is systematic in nature. Policy recommendations are provided to improve ESG evaluation systems and promote sustainable industrial transformation.