spatial-temporal analysis of rainfall and temperature patterns in NCA, Northern Tanzania from 1978 and 2019

Context and background Changes in precipitation and temperature may imply changes and variability in climate which may cause negative and positive environmental and social-economic impacts even within protected and /or conserved areas. Changes in trends of temperature and precipitation can instigate impacts on a particular environment and subsequently affect lives (biodiversity) and interactions between organisms and their environment (ecosystem). This paper presents a spatial-temporal trend analysis in temperature and rainfall patterns from 1978 to 2019 in Ngorongoro Conservation Area (NCA), northern Tanzania Goal and Objectives: This paper presents a spatial-temporal trend analysis in temperature and rainfall patterns from 1978 to 2019 in Ngorongoro Conservation Area (NCA), The findings obtained can be used in understanding the influence of changes in precipitation and temperature on distribution and abundance of biodiversity in the ecosystem; and in development and implementation of appropriate conservation strategies and plans for enhanced management and sustainable conservation Methodology: Gridded monthly rainfall and temperature data from TerraClimate (TC) database have been utilized. Modified Mann-Kendal and Thiel-Sen’s slope estimators were used to test the significance and compute magnitude of trend of each variable respectively.. Results: The results show a significant decreasing trend (𝑝 < 0.1) in long-term annual rainfall ranging from −1mm to – 6mm per year. Maximum and minimum temperature indicate a significant increasing trend (p < 0.1) between 0.02 to 0.03°C per year, generally along the South-West and North-East parts of NCA.