Strategic Safety Time: AI/AGI-Driven CPA Reversal in Missile Defense and the Durability of Strategic Time-Lags (2027–2032)

This two-part study examines how embedding advanced AI—and prospectively AGI—into the U.S. missile-defense kill chain can reverse the long-standing Cost–Probability Asymmetry (CPA), creating a measurable strategic safety time-window (2027–2032). Part I formalizes the CPA model, maps the Sense–Decide–Act stack, and specifies falsifiable propositions (P1/P2) observable in U.S. and NATO testbeds. Part II extends the analysis to adversary countermeasures, resilience architectures, and the conditions under which the CPA flip can be locked (P3), with comparative implications for the U.S., EU/NATO, and China. The paper argues that AI-enabled missile defense is not a marginal technical upgrade but a structural lever that manufactures strategic time-lags in a multipolar system.