Environmental Governance Pressure and the Co-Benefit of Carbon Emissions Reduction: Evidence from a Quasi-Natural Experiment on 2012 Air Standards

Achieving carbon emission reduction synergy is vital for green economic transformation. This study examines whether environmental governance pressure promotes such synergy, simultaneously driving carbon reduction and pollution control. Leveraging the 2012 Ambient Air Quality Standard as a quasi-natural experiment, we employ a continuous difference-in-differences (DID) method on 250 prefecture-level cities from 2009 to 2022. Our findings reveal that increased environmental governance pressure significantly reduces both the total amount and intensity of carbon emissions, demonstrating a clear synergistic effect. This synergy is positively correlated with reductions in major air pollutants (e.g., SO2 and NOx), indicating that pressure curbs both the total amount and intensity of carbon emissions. Mechanistic analysis shows that this pressure primarily curtails carbon emissions by fostering green innovation and accelerating cleaner energy transitions, with no ‘green paradox’. It also promotes low-carbon industrial restructuring while reducing reliance on end-of-pipe pollution management. Heterogeneity analysis indicates stronger synergistic effects in regions with lower emission reduction costs (e.g., western China, less developed industrial bases). We recommend robust central government environmental regulation policies to amplify local governance pressure, strengthen carbon reduction synergy, and facilitate continuous green development.