Exoplanets beyond the Conservative Habitable Zone: II. Occurrence

We demonstrate that the extension of the Habitable Zone (HZ) due to the presence of liquid water on the night side of tidally locked planets, modelled in this and earlier works, significantly increases the number of potentially habitable planets. We calculate the occurrence of habitable planets orbiting M-, K-, and G-dwarf stars within the conservative and extended HZ, beyond the inner and outer boundaries of the conservative HZ. Integrating over the phase space in the HZ diagram and normalizing our calculation to relatively recent analyses of the Kepler data, we show that potentially habitable planets may be as much as 50 times more abundant than in the lower estimate, limited to the conservative HZ of G-type stars only. For an intermediate heat transport rate on tidally locked planets, we find that the extended HZ could imply more than one habitable planet per star, and hundreds of habitable planets within 10 pc from Earth.