RELATE-Sim: Leveraging Turning Point Theory and LLM Agents to Predict and Understand Long-Term Relationship Dynamics through Interactive Narrative Simulations

Most dating technologies optimize for getting together, not staying together. We present RELATE-Sim, a theory-grounded simulator that models how couples behave at consequential turning points-exclusivity talks, conflict-and-repair episodes, relocations-rather than static traits. Two persona-aligned LLM agents (one per partner) interact under a centralized Scene Master that frames each turning point as a compact set of realistic options, advances the narrative, and infers interpretable state changes and an auditable commitment estimate after each scene. On a longitudinal dataset of 71 couples with two-year follow-ups, simulation-aware predictions outperform a personas-only baseline while surfacing actionable markers (e.g., repair attempts acknowledged, clarity shifts) that explain why trajectories diverge. RELATE-Sim pushes the relationship research's focus from matchmaking to maintenance, providing a transparent, extensible platform for understanding and forecasting long-term relationship dynamics.