Nationalism and War in the 21st‐Century Europe

The last decade in Europe has been characterised by notable upheaval. The rise of anti-immigrant, nativist, and populist movements, the decline of traditional political parties, growing socioeconomic inequalities, and deepening political polarisation have undermined Europe's political and social stability. While the 2016 Brexit referendum disrupted the direction of the European project, the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine sent shockwaves across the continent. For many analysts, these developments were unexpected and unforeseen. In the conventional view, neither war nor nationalism had a place in 21st-century Europe. For many analysts nationalism was no more than a relic of the 19th century. Similarly, many commentators have insisted for years that organised violence is on the decline and that the likelihood of a major war in Europe is negligible. I challenge these conventional interpretations of European modernity that downplay the importance of organised violence and nationalism. I aim to show that a longue durée sociological analysis can help us understand the historical trajectory of nationalism and war in Europe. I argue that recent developments are not an outliner, but part of a historical trend. Nationalism and organized violence have experienced a relatively continuous rise in modernity.