LLM Watermark Evasion via Bias Inversion

Watermarking offers a promising solution for detecting LLM-generated content, yet its robustness under realistic query-free (black-box) evasion remains an open challenge. Existing query-free attacks often achieve limited success or severely distort semantic meaning. We bridge this gap by theoretically analyzing rewriting-based evasion, demonstrating that reducing the average conditional probability of sampling green tokens by a small margin causes the detection probability to decay exponentially. Guided by this insight, we propose the Bias-Inversion Rewriting Attack (BIRA), a practical query-free method that applies a negative logit bias to a proxy suppression set identified via token surprisal. Empirically, BIRA achieves state-of-the-art evasion rates (>99%) across diverse watermarking schemes while preserving semantic fidelity substantially better than prior baselines. Our findings reveal a fundamental vulnerability in current watermarking methods and highlight the need for rigorous stress tests.