Closed-System Dynamics Model for Terrorism-Counterterrorism and Its Application in Counterterrorism Game

This paper establishes a class of terror-counterterror dynamic models. Through stability analysis of the model and game-theoretic examination of counterterrorism operations, it demonstrates the minimum force requirement for terrorist groups to launch attacks, the conditions for simultaneous multi-point terrorist outbreaks in society, the precise timing of terrorist incidents including absolute safety periods and absolute danger windows, the minimum troop deployment thresholds for effective counterterrorism, the theoretical refutation of piecemeal reinforcement strategies, and provides a formal mathematical basis for the “overwhelm early, stabilize fast” strategy in counterterrorism strategy.