Research on the Surplus Forecasting of Shanghai Residents' Medical Insurance Fund

Objective: To forecast the revenue, expenditure, and surplus of Shanghai residents' medical insurance fund from 2024 to 2030, and provide references for relevant policy adjustments. Methods: This study collected data on Shanghai residents' medical insurance fund from 2017 to 2023, analyzed the current operation status of the fund, and constructed a GM(1,1) model to predict and analyze the fund's revenue, expenditure, and surplus from 2024 to 2030. Results: The research shows that the revenue of Shanghai residents' medical insurance fund will continue to be insufficient to cover expenditures from 2024 to 2030. The annual fund deficit will expand from -736 million yuan to -3665 million yuan, and the cumulative fund surplus deficit will grow from -1448 million yuan in 2026 to -12611 million yuan. Conclusion: The continuous expansion of the deficit in Shanghai residents' medical insurance fund and the sustained downward trend in fund surplus require serious attention and countermeasures. Recommendations: It is suggested to broaden the financing channels, optimize the expenditure structure, increase revenue, reasonably control expenditures, and build a sustainable fund operation model.