Evaluation of Ketch-Bayram Drought index Performance in estimating drought and fire potential Zoning (Area of Study: East Azerbaijan province)

Objective: Forests are among the most valuable renewable natural resources, playing a critical role in maintaining ecological balance and sustaining ecosystems. However, droughts and wildfires inflict significant damage on these resources each year. Method: Daily temperature and precipitation data were collected from six meteorological stations and analyzed using the Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI). Subsequently, spatial interpolation methods were applied to generate wildfire risk zoning maps. Results: The findings indicated that the Jolfa station recorded the highest drought severity and wildfire potential in 1998, with a KBDI value of 329.83, whereas the Ahar station, in the same year, registered the lowest drought severity with a KBDI of 59.75. Additionally, an eight-year continuous drought period was observed at the Jolfa station. Conclusions: The analysis demonstrated that higher drought intensity is associated with a greater likelihood of wildfire occurrence, emphasizing the need for the development of preventive strategies and targeted natural resource management in high-risk areas. The outcomes of this study can contribute to enhancing conservation policies and reducing the impacts of natural wildfires.