PUBLIC DEBT AND PUBLIC DEBT ADMINISTRATION UNDER MARTIAL LAW IN THE PROCESS OF POST-WAR RECONSTRUCTION

A martial law economy requires a balanced approach to public debt management to ensure that the debt burden is kept at an acceptable level and that recovery is rapid. Increasing public spending to meet the needs of the security and defense sector and the social sphere under traditional Ukrainian approaches to fiscal management will have a negative impact on the future financing of post-war growth. The article presents the current state of debt policy under the legal regime of martial law. The author identifies the common and distinctive features of debt policy that were inherent in the period before the full-scale invasion and during the military aggression of the Russian Federation. The author proves the interrelation and interdependence between debt policy, adaptation of economic policy and public finance management system to the European integration vector (with dualization of this vector into conditions before the full-scale invasion of Russia and the wartime economy) and the course of post-war recovery of the country from the consequences of the war, in particular, embodied in the short-term (EU Financial Support Program for Ukraine – Ukraine Facility) and long-term (Marshall Plan for Post-War Ukraine) strategic planning of this process. The empirical data on the definition of public debt depending on the conditions in which the country is located, as well as taking into account the chosen medium-term strategy for its management, are presented. An econometric model of the dependence of the debt burden on macroeconomic variables is built. As a result, the dependence of debt dynamics on the budget deficit, devaluation of the national currency and export dynamics is revealed. The key differences between annual public debt management programs in a war economy, the need to balance the needs of the security and defense forces, and the adaptation of economic policy to EU requirements are presented.