High-precision Land Surface Temperature (LST) mapping using Co-Kriging for Urban Centers

With the ongoing expansion of urban areas worldwide, addressing the resulting imbalances has become an urgent concern for city sustainability, especially in changing climatic conditions. The Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect is a prominent phenomenon in this context; Land Surface Temperature (LST) is widely recognized as a vital indicator for quantifying UHI intensity, providing essential data for researchers and policymakers. The research employs universal co-kriging approach for mapping UHI, using LST as the primary variable for the urban center of Ahmedabad, India. The study integrates Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and the Normalized Difference Building Index (NDBI) as covariates, derived from 2024 Landsat-8 satellite imagery at a 30-meter spatial resolution to create more precise and robust LST maps of the study area. The methodology demonstrates effective temperature prediction capabilities, with a coefficient of determination (R<sup xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">2</sup>) of 0.67 on average and a maximum value of 0.7. Results reveal a pronounced UHI effect, with urban centers reaching temperatures of 40°C, while non-urban areas maintain lower temperatures of approximately 30°C. The strong positive correlation between LST and NDBI (R = 0.65) and negative correlation with NDVI (R = −0.54) highlight the significant impact of built environments and vegetation on urban thermal conditions. These findings provide quantitative evidence to support targeted urban greening initiatives and heat-adaptive planning strategies in rapidly urbanizing regions facing climate challenges.