Probability Evaluation Method of Distributed Photovoltaic Carrying Capacity under Risk Suppression in New Power System

In order to suppress the safety and stable operation risks brought by the disorderly integration of distributed photovoltaics in the context of the new power system, a hierarchical probability evaluation method based on historical scene statistics is proposed. This method establishes a grading probability evaluation model of PV bearing capacity based on reverse load ratio and a safety check probability evaluation model. The grading probability evaluation process of PV bearing capacity weaknesses based on historical scene statistics is given. By constructing a PV bearing capacity evaluation model based on percentile statistics, a hierarchical probability evaluation method for the capacity of distributed PV access distribution network is finally formed. The effectiveness and universality of the proposed method are verified by the improved guideline example and the actual distribution network case. Experiments show that the method can scientifically show the new PV capacity of each power supply area under different percentiles, and the identified PV capacity weakness is more in line with statistical significance.