Developing a Cognitive Skills Model for Organizational Leaders and Managers in Decision-Making within the VUCA Environment

Objective The importance of managerial and leadership characteristics in organizational success, particularly in decision-making in turbulent and uncertain environments, is well recognized. Given that decision-making in the VUCA environment must be quick and decisive while accounting for ambiguity and complexity, this study aims to identify the cognitive skills managers and leaders should utilize to guide their organizations in such conditions. Specifically, the research seeks to answer the question: What cognitive skills do leaders and managers need to make effective decisions and steer the organization in the VUCA environment? Methodology This research employed a systematic literature review due to the wide range and lack of a specific, structured framework for cognitive models in the management literature. A systematic approach also enables researchers to identify theoretical gaps, as well as the similarities and differences within existing literature. After the review, a model for the cognitive skills of leaders and managers was identified and presented, making the approach of this study 'exploratory.' The review was conducted using the seven-step model developed by Kitchenham and Charters. Findings In this research, the guiding question was first defined, followed by the determination of keywords. The relevant databases were then selected, and inclusion and exclusion criteria were established. A total of 2,163 items, including books, articles, and theses, were collected through keyword searches in the specified databases. The Caldwell framework was applied to assess the quality of the selected texts. For analysis, each document was assigned a code, and open coding was performed to categorize the texts. After the initial coding, the categories and themes found were classified to identify leadership skills and capabilities in the VUCA environment. In the selected texts, various approaches and concepts have been used to describe leaders and managers in the VUCA environment, which shows the importance of the topic in today's business world. In the early 2000s, there was little need to study these issues; however, over time, the business environment became increasingly characterized by ambiguity, complexity, turbulent changes, and uncertainty, leading to the development of new leadership models. In this research, after categorizing the data, three key themes in leadership within the VUCA environment were identified. Conclusion This research provides a fresh perspective on leadership skills by considering the VUCA environment and its influence on the decision-making processes of managers and leaders, with a focus on cognitive skills and leadership styles. In contrast, most prior studies have examined leadership from specific angles, such as its impact on innovation, organizational knowledge, or sustainable development, or have focused on leadership in family businesses, particular cultural or environmental contexts, or based on factors like nationality or gender.