Strategic symptom warning based on causal knowledge map and D-S evidence theory reasoning

Strategic symptom warning plays a key role in safeguarding national security and regional stability. Aiming at the limitations of existing early warning methods in dealing with multi-source conflict evidence and cognitive uncertainty, a strategic symptom early warning framework based on D-S evidence theory is designed based on open source intelligence texts. First, build a three-dimensional symptom classification system of military behavior, political behavior and international behavior, and define the causal knowledge map of events. Secondly, the original evidence is transformed into structured input through semantic mapping, and an adaptive basic probability allocation function is established. Finally, Dempster combination rules are used to fuse multi-dimensional symptom evidence, and reliability likelihood interval estimation is used to generate probability prediction and explanatory analysis. The case study shows that the framework can effectively quantify the evolution trend of conflict situations and generate strategic early warning results with decision-making value. Its structural evidence fusion mechanism provides a new methodological support for strategic prediction in a highly uncertain environment.