Rural-Urban Disparities in Animal-Source Food Demand and Welfare Losses during COVID-19 in Iran: A QUAIDS Approach

AbstractThe COVID-19 pandemic presented major global challenges, including a decline in per capita income growth across all income groups in 2020. The protein sector, particularly Animal-Source Foods (ASF) faced increased pressure on both supply and demand, resulting in price volatility. This study examines how income shocks affected food expenditure patterns and consumption behavior, with a focus on protein-rich ASF. Utilizing the QUAIDS model, budget data from Iranian households in rural and urban areas were analyzed for 2019 (pre-pandemic) and 2020 (during pandemic). The findings yield three key insights: (1) The average food expenditure share rose from 37% to 42%, with a sharper increase in rural areas; (2) Positive expenditure elasticities were observed across the six ASF groups including livestock meat, poultry, aquatic animal products, dairy, eggs, and fats, while own-price elasticities were relatively smaller; and (3) Welfare losses across ASF groups ranged from 2% to 24.2%, driven by policy imbalances, supply chain disruptions, and unequal utility distribution. Rural households experienced greater welfare losses in all ASF categories except fats. The study recommends targeted interventions: price-based support for urban areas and expanded social services for rural regions. To strengthen policy responses and enhance long-term food security, future research should assess the potential for substituting plant-based proteins as sustainable and cost-effective alternatives. These findings offer valuable guidance for policymakers aiming to improve nutritional resilience and economic stability in the post-pandemic era.