Single Ship Life Cycle Maintenance Cost Prediction Based on Variant Error Correction Model

The accurate prediction of the single ship life cycle maintenance cost is an important basis for ship maintenance plan management and fund management. From the perspective of accounting, this paper divides the single ship life cycle maintenance cost into three parts, i.e. overhaul cost, intermediate repair cost and maintenance equipment and equipment purchase cost. According to the characteristics of each cost, a differentiated prediction method is adopted. Firstly, the overhaul cost is modeled and analyzed independently. Based on the error correction model, the relationship between the overhaul cost and the other two costs is revealed. Secondly, aiming at the particularity of ship life cycle maintenance cost forecast, the traditional error correction model is improved, and the model of year-by-year forecast addition is optimized to direct cycle sum forecast, which not only simplifies the calculation process, but also reduces the accumulated error; Finally, the prediction results of the model are compared with those of the proportional model, the regression model and the invariant mode, which shows that the prediction accuracy of the model is significantly better than that of the contrast model.