Wind Power Plant's Efficiency Probabilistic Evaluation Using Different Initial Data Sources

This article considers effects of the retrospective wind potential data used for probabilistic evaluation of a wind power plant efficiency. Power output shortage due to the aerodynamic shading of each wind turbine is used to estimate the efficiency of a wind power plant. The Murmansk region of the Russian Federation was used as wind turbines placement territory due to it's vast wind potential and specific landscape which is suitable for the wind turbines placement. To estimate the aerodynamic shading effect (wake effect) the first order Larsen model is used. Aerodynamic shading is estimated for different wind directions using the most probable wind speed values. The results of estimation based on actual archive data from local meteorological stations and synthetic data from NASAPOWER database are compared. It is found that results differ by 30 %. Based on that, it is stated that actual data archived from the local meteorological stations is preferable, when estimating new wind power plant efficiency.