The changges in landscape connectivity in the Funiu Mountain Area in 2035 based on future scenarios

This study explores landscape connectivity and spatial optimization in the Funiu Mountain area of China by integrating the PLUS model (Patch-generating Land Use Simulation) with MSPA (Morphological Spatial Pattern Analysis). Using land-use data from 2005–2020, the authors simulate four scenarios for 2035: natural development, farmland protection, ecological priority, and economic development. Validation shows the model is reliable (Kappa = 0.81, overall accuracy = 90.39%). Results indicate that ecological priority scenarios significantly enhance landscape connectivity (increasing dPC, dLCP, and dIIC by 30–45%), while farmland protection and economic development reduce it. Policy recommendations emphasize prioritizing ecological connectivity, balancing farmland preservation, and moderating urban expansion.