Digital Traces of War: A Comparative Analysis of Social Media-Based Diplomatic Discourse on the Russia-Ukraine Conflict in the EEU Countries

This study comparatively examines the social media-based diplomatic discourse of four Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) member states during the first month of the Russia-Ukraine war (February 24–March 24, 2022). The analysis is based on Twitter/X posts by the foreign ministries and senior government representatives of these countries. Data was collected and processed using Python-based tools and machine learning techniques. Armenia was excluded from the discursive analysis as it made no official statements during the study period. The results show that Belarus pursued an active communication strategy that aligned with Russia's discourse while simultaneously promoting itself as a peace facilitator. Kazakhstan, by contrast, maintained a neutral stance, emphasizing humanitarian support and diplomatic dialogue, carefully avoiding blame-oriented rhetoric. Kyrgyzstan, facing limited institutional capacity and significant dependency on Russia, adopted a strategy of “strategic minimalism,” remaining visible only through formal diplomatic protocol. These findings suggest that discourse is not merely a foreign policy tool but also a mechanism for small states to achieve diplomatic positioning, flexibility, and legitimacy on the international stage. The differing communication styles of these states reflect their unique geopolitical orientations, levels of economic dependence, and room for maneuver in global politics. In this context, social media-based digital diplomacy emerges as a valuable lens to assessing how small states navigate crises, revealing the strategic nature of their public messaging in shaping international perceptions and asserting their roles within broader geopolitical dynamics.