Credal Luck

Monotheistic religions traditionally teach exclusive salvation – that ultimate truth or redemption comes only through one faith – while also affirming a just and merciful God. This tension gives rise to a paradox of capacity and accountability: how can individuals be held fully accountable for embracing the “one true faith” if their capacity to recognize or accept that faith is limited by factors beyond their control? This article examines a crucial aspect of this paradox: the theological treatment of cognitive disability in Judaism, Christianity, and Islam. All three Abrahamic faiths, through authoritative teachings (e.g. Talmudic law, the Catechism of the Catholic Church, Qur’an and hadith), acknowledge diminished culpability for those with intellectual impairments or lack of understanding. If intelligence or cognitive ability affects one’s ability to perceive religious truth – as these doctrines imply – then intelligence itself becomes relevant to salvation. We test this implication against empirical evidence: psychological studies and survey data (Pew, GSS, etc.) consistently show that higher education, intelligence, and analytical thinking correlate with lower religiosity, seemingly contradicting the assumption that more intellect leads naturally to religious truth. This empirical paradox is situated within the broader themes of credal luck (the “accident of birth” in determining one’s religion) and the justice of exclusivist salvation doctrines. We argue that if both one’s birthplace and one’s cognitive abilities largely lie beyond one’s control, yet strongly shape one’s beliefs, then doctrines claiming only one path to salvation face profound ethical and theological challenges. The article integrates scriptural analysis, philosophical arguments on the capacity–accountability paradox, and empirical findings on intelligence and belief. We conclude with reflections on how recognizing the role of chance and capacity in faith might urge more inclusive or nuanced theologies, as well as greater humility in interfaith relations.