Defining Pre-Probabilistic Insights: A Conceptual Advancement for Systemic Risk Assessment and Decision-Making

This paper introduces a novel concept, "Pre-Probabilistic Insights," which innovatively advances risk management and decision science within the original Changification Framework. This framework posits that system dynamics shape outcome likelihoods (Apanisile, 2025a). Probabilistic models, reliant on historical data, struggle with complex adaptive systems (Taleb, 2007). Pre-Probabilistic Insights (PPI) focuses on assessing systemic states before probabilistic forecasts, using the innovative Risk Pressure Level Assessment (RPLA) to measure fragility and resilience (Apanisile, 2025a, 2025b). RPLA may detect early-warning signals of systemic shifts, potentially before probabilistic methods identify changes in outcome likelihoods, offering a foundation for proactive decision-making.