Continuity or change? racial segregation in Cape Town

Cape Town’s racial segregation has declined since 1994, but demographic shifts complicate comparisons over time. We decompose post-apartheid segregation trends and examine neighborhood-level patterns to distinguish between city demographic effects and deeper segregation changes. Most of the decline stems from citywide population growth among Africans, with limited evidence of deeper social integration. Yet there are some notable neighborhood-level patterns. Middle-income corridors, such as along Voortrekker Road, show notable desegregation through black upward mobility, while former-white suburbs are changing slowly. Historic townships remain predominantly black, reflecting persistent housing market inequalities. Urbanization is leading to densification in poorer areas away from the core rather than socio-spatial integration. Thus, while Cape Town appears less segregated, apartheid’s spatial legacy endures, as most black households remain priced out of former-white areas.