Evolutionary economics and the grain market: redefining competitive advantage in the era of agriculture 4.0

The world grain market has entered a phase of profound structural transformation, when accelerated digitalization destroys the traditional chain of “grow → save → sell” and transfers the agricultural sector into a regime of constant turbulence with nonlinear reactions to climatic and geopolitical shocks. The relevance of the study is determined by the need for a new analytical framework that can explain the shift in sources of competitiveness from scale effects to data processing speed and integration into digital ecosystems. The article aims to substantiate how the introduction of Agriculture 4.0 technologies transforms sources of competitive advantage in the global grain market, demonstrating the transition from a scale-cost logic to a data-driven model of rapid adaptation, supply chain transparency, and sustainability, from the standpoint of the evolutionary-economic paradigm of “variation – selection – inheritance”. The object is the system of global grain flows, and the subject is the coevolution of technologies and industry institutions. To address these issues, a set of methods consistent with the logic of the evolutionary-economic approach was employed. Theoretical and conceptual analysis enabled the integration of ideas from evolutionary and institutional economics with the Agriculture 4.0 paradigm, and a systematic literature review provided an empirical basis. The empirical block includes a content analysis of industry publications, a comparative and historical analysis of leading exporters and importers, as well as a graphical modeling of the grain market evolution chain. The results show that the introduction of digital complexes not only increases yields and reduces resource costs, but also fundamentally changes the structure of value propositions: premium grain lots with full traceability and new services emerge. Competition shifts to the planes of transparency, speed of adaptation, and environmental validity, while classic economies of scale are devalued; at the same time, the high barriers to entry and the shortage of digital skills deepen the inequality between leaders and outsiders. The practical value of the study lies in the formulated recommendations: creating a data-driven core of the enterprise, institutionalizing blockchain transparency, integrating ESG criteria, developing human capital, and flexibly managing technological trajectories, which allows converting data and partner networks into a sustainable competitive advantage. Keywords: Agriculture 4.0, evolutionary economics, grain market, digital transformation, competitive advantages, agribusiness, enterprise adaptability.