Democratization in East Asia: The Role of Regime Endogeneity and Geopolitical Currents

This study examines how a regime’s endogeneity (its internal origins independent of significant external support) and international pressures shape democratization trajectories in East Asian Confucian societies. Challenging simplistic cultural determinism, the article argues that while classical Confucianism is not inherently anti-democratic, “ruler-made legacies” from the imperial era can hinder or facilitate democratic change depending on the ruling elites’ strategic choices. Comparative analysis of Singapore and South Korea illustrates this: Singapore’s highly endogenous regime effectively resists external democratic pressures and controls modernization to bolster non-democratic rule. Conversely, South Korea’s exogenous regime, lacking deep internal legitimacy and facing sustained international pressure, was compelled towards democratization. Modernization’s democratizing potential, therefore, depends on the regime type and geopolitical environment.