Numerical Investigation of the Erosive Dynamics of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods: A Case Study of the 2020 Jinwuco Event in Southeastern Tibetan Plateau

Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) represent increasingly common and high-magnitude geohazards across the cryosphere of the Tibetan Plateau, particularly under ongoing climate warming and glacier retreat. This study combines multi-temporal remote sensing imagery and detailed Flo-2D hydrodynamic modeling to investigate the erosive dynamics of the 2020 Jinwuco GLOF in Southeastern Tibetan Plateau. Key conclusions include: (1) The 2.35 km-long flood routing channel exhibits pronounced non-uniformity in horizontal curvature, channel width, and cross-sectional shape, significantly influencing flood propagation; five representative cross-sections divide the channel into six distinct segments. (2) Prominent lateral erosion occurred proximally to the dam, attributable to extreme erosive forces and high sediment transport capacity during peak discharge, with horizontal channel curvature further amplifying local impact and erosion. (3) Erosion rates were highest near the dam and in downstream narrow segments, while mid-reach sections with greater width experienced lower erosion. (4) Maximum flow depths reached 28.12 m in topographically confined reaches, whereas peak velocities occurred in upstream and downstream curved sections. (5) The apparent critical erosive shear stress of bank material is controlled not only by soil strength but also by flood dynamics and pre-existing channel morphology, indicating strong feedback between flow dynamics, channel morphology, and critical erosive shear stress of bank material. This study provides a generalized and transferable framework for analyzing GLOF-related erosion in data-scarce high-altitude regions, offering critical insights for hazard assessment, regional planning, and risk mitigation strategies.