INFLUENCE OF US AND CHINA ON THE INDIA-PAKISTAN CONFLICT: IMPLICATIONS FOR THE INDO-PACIFIC GEO-POLITICS

Conflict is an inherent part of human interaction, from a personal to an international level. The enduring India-Pakistan conflict, though fundamentally bilateral, is profoundly shaped by the actions of external actors, particularly the United States and China. Therefore, this study examined the influence of external actors on the Indian-Pakistan conflict, juxtaposed the roles of the US and China in the crisis, and interrogated the impact of the involvement of two the actors in the conflict on the Indo-pacific geo-politics. The study is a product of qualitative research, it adopted a qualitative comparative analysis methodology. The study was descriptive, drawing on secondary sources as method of data collection. The gathered data was analysed qualitatively using content analysis technique. The study leveraged the theories of Realism and Structural Realism as its frameworks of analysis. Findings of the study showed that the U.S. approach to the India-Pakistan conflict has been characterized by inconsistency and a focus on short-term gains rather than a dedicated effort toward long-term resolution. In stark contrast, China's policy has been defined by strategic consistency. This enduring partnership has been a major factor in the persistency of the conflict. Also, the growing rivalry between the U.S. and China has transformed the India-Pakistan rivalry into a proxy for a broader geopolitical competition. Therefore, a significant element in this geopolitical rivalry is the role of economic corridors as powerful instruments of foreign policy. Thus, the study concludes that the emerging great power competition between the US and China is the most significant external factor influencing the conflict, locking India and Pakistan into rival geopolitical blocs and making a peaceful resolution even more elusive. Thus, the India–Pakistan conflict is no longer a regional rivalry but a theater of great-power competition. These actors’ involvement militarizes the conflict through arms flows and crisis interventions, politicize it across alliances (Quad vs. CPEC), and entrench economic and nuclear fault lines that reverberate across the Indo-Pacific balance of power. It therefore recommends that, for lasting peace to be achieved, a shift in the strategic calculus of both India and Pakistan, as well as a more coordinated and constructive approach from the US and China, is required