Türkiye's Arms Sales: Regional Security Role, Market Competition, and Domestic Politics

This paper examines the multifaceted motivations and geopolitical consequences underpinning Türkiye's burgeoning defense industry and its expanding role as an arms exporter (Valbjørn & Gunning, 2020). This analysis will explore how Türkiye's historical imperative for defense industrial autonomy, stemming from past embargoes, has propelled its current trajectory as a significant player in the global arms market (Valbjørn & Gunning, 2020). Furthermore, Türkiye leverages its indigenous drone technology, recognized for its cost-effectiveness and enhanced capabilities, to gain geopolitical leverage and bolster its influence in international security dynamics (Feldstein, 2023). This strategic approach has allowed Türkiye to foster transactional relationships with Western partners while simultaneously deepening economic, diplomatic, and security ties with non-Western nations, reflecting a broader quest for strategic autonomy in a shifting global order (Kutlay & Önіş, 2024). This pursuit is further complicated by Ankara's historical decisions regarding non-Western air defense systems, which have significant ramifications for its alliances and defense industrial base (Egeli, 2018). This evolving landscape intensifies competition with other regional powers such as Israel and India for critical defense markets, particularly concerning advanced military drone exports which are experiencing a global surge (Feldstein, 2023). This competitive environment necessitates continuous innovation and adaptation within Türkiye's defense sector, especially as other nations like Israel demonstrate remarkable agility in integrating civilian technologies into military applications to maintain their market share (Evron, 2025). This dynamic environment necessitates a detailed examination of Türkiye's defense diplomacy, its strategic implications, and the challenges it faces in navigating complex domestic and international political landscapes. This paper will also delve into the implications of Türkiye's defense industrial growth for its position within NATO, especially concerning its procurement of non-Western defense systems, which has generated significant friction with its traditional allies (Kibaroğlu, 2020). Specifically, the acquisition of the S-400 missile defense system from Russia, following protracted negotiations for Western alternatives, exemplifies this friction and its impact on Türkiye's defense industry and its relationships with NATO partners (Kibaroğlu, 2020). This strategic trajectory underscores Ankara's ambition to carve out an autonomous foreign policy space, extending its influence across Central Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and Europe through multifaceted engagement, including "drone diplomacy" (Lindgaard, 2024) (Aydın‐Düzgit et al., 2025).