Stability Analysis of a Regional Management Center’s Request-Routing System Using Discrete-Event Simulation (In Russ.)

This study develops a modeling approach for the workload of a regional citizen relationship management system, exemplified by a Regional Management Center (RMC). The model enables identification of critical operating conditions for the system, which is essential for devising measures to prevent failures, particularly under rising request volumes. To construct the model, we examined feedback mechanisms and characterized the system-level properties of the request-processing pipeline. To represent these properties and the management process, we employed discrete-event simulation. This approach is well suited to capturing the dynamics of queueing systems, accommodates multi-stage processes with stochastic events, and allows evaluation of performance criteria across diverse scenarios. The experimental component draws on both prescribed (normative) and observed routing rates, as well as several datasets that have passed through the RMC. The model instantiates processes for each stage of request handling. Based on regulatory requirements and empirical data, we specified stage-wise service-time delays and simulated request flows under four scenarios with vary-ing loads and conditions. The results indicate that, given the current organizational structure and routing methods, the system is at risk of violating established performance targets.