The Resilience of the Russian Northwest Regions in The Context of Increasing Combined Shocks (In Russ.)

This study is devoted to developing approaches to analyzing the resilience of regional development under the influence of external shocks. The objective of the study is to measure the response of Northwestern Federal District regions to multiple and overlapping (combined) shocks using economic and statistical methods. The article analyzes the origins and content of the term «resilience» as an economic category. The author's definitions of resilience and combined shock are presented. The former is understood as the response of an economic system to shocks and the ability of this system to maintain some form of stability. The latter is defined as an economic crisis complicated by accumulated structural, managerial, and social problems. An original periodization of shock impacts on the Russian economy is presented. Based on the authors' periodization, an analysis of the resilience level of the Northwestern Federal District re-gions was conducted by calculating indices of recession resistance and post-recession economic recovery, correspond-ing to two phases of the shock impact based on employment indicators: the shock itself, or «resistance» phase, charac-terized by a decline in socioeconomic indicators, and the «recovery» phase, characterized by a return to pre-shock indicators. The authors' calculations demonstrate the effectiveness and feasibility of this methodology and the potential for its use, in particular, for measuring and assessing the impact of combined economic shocks. The presented technique is a fairly effective tool and can be effectively applied to interregional comparisons, or to assess the dynamics of a particular region's development