Selection of Model Sites of Ecotone Pine-Broadleaf Forests for Monitoring the Impact of Climate Change

This study aimed to justify the selection of model sample plots of ecotone pine-broadleaved communities for monitoring changes of forest composition in the Southern Urals under the influence of climatic changes. Modelling of changes in potential ranges of pine-broadleaved forests of the suballiance Tilio cordatae-Pinenion sylvestris including four associations (Ass. Tilio cordatae-Pinetum sylvestris, Euonymo verrucosae-Pinetum sylvestris, Galio odorati-Pinetum sylvestris, Carici arnellii-Pinetum sylvestris) under scenarios of moderate (RCP4.5) and strong (RCP8.5) climate change was carried out. Current and predicted climatic characteristics, as well as indicators of habitat suitability in 120 known localities of pine-broadleaved forests in the mountain-forest zone of the Republic of Bashkortostan and on the Ufa Plateau were calculated. Ten localities of pine-broadleaved forests with the maximum predicted change in habitat suitability were selected for monitoring climatic changes.