Bayesian Constraints on Pre-Equilibrium Jet Quenching and Predictions for Oxygen Collisions

The contrast between the as-yet unmeasurable energy-loss effects in proton-nucleus collisions and the striking magnitude of the so-called high-momentum flow coefficients challenges our understanding of jet quenching mechanisms in large nucleus-nucleus collisions when applied to smaller systems. Intermediate-sized, light ion collisions will offer key insight into the system-size dependence of the interplay between jet energy loss and jet flow effects. To make quantitative predictions, we extend a semi-analytic jet quenching framework by coupling it to state-of-the-art event-by-event hydrodynamics and, for the first time, incorporate pre-equilibrium energy loss via the hydrodynamic attractor. A Bayesian analysis shows that an early-time onset of energy loss is compatible with RHIC and LHC measurements of jet suppression and jet elliptic flow in large systems, as well as hadron suppression, with the exception of hadron elliptic flow. Using these constraints, we predict both hadron and jet quenching observables in oxygen-oxygen collisions, finding sizable energy loss that exceeds the no-quenching baseline.