Can LLMs Forecast Internet Traffic from Social Media?

Societal events shape the Internet's behavior. The death of a prominent public figure, a software launch, or a major sports match can trigger sudden demand surges that overwhelm peering points and content delivery networks. Although these events fall outside regular traffic patterns, forecasting systems still rely solely on those patterns and therefore miss these critical anomalies. Thus, we argue for socio-technical systems that supplement technical measurements with an active understanding of the underlying drivers, including how events and collective behavior shape digital demands. We propose traffic forecasting using signals from public discourse, such as headlines, forums, and social media, as early demand indicators. To validate our intuition, we present a proof-of-concept system that autonomously scrapes online discussions, infers real-world events, clusters and enriches them semantically, and correlates them with traffic measurements at a major Internet Exchange Point. This prototype predicted between 56-92% of society-driven traffic spikes after scraping a moderate amount of online discussions. We believe this approach opens new research opportunities in cross-domain forecasting, scheduling, demand anticipation, and society-informed decision making.

Publication Details

Journal
ArXiv.org
Published
2025-09-24
Primary Topic
Drug-Induced Hepatotoxicity and Protection
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
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article

Can LLMs Forecast Internet Traffic from Social Media?

ArXiv.org
Drug-Induced Hepatotoxicity and Protection
article

Can LLMs Forecast Internet Traffic from Social Media?

article en

Abstract

Societal events shape the Internet's behavior. The death of a prominent public figure, a software launch, or a major sports match can trigger sudden demand surges that overwhelm peering points and content delivery networks. Although these events fall outside regular traffic patterns, forecasting systems still rely solely on those patterns and therefore miss these critical anomalies. Thus, we argue for socio-technical systems that supplement technical measurements with an active understanding of the underlying drivers, including how events and collective behavior shape digital demands. We propose traffic forecasting using signals from public discourse, such as headlines, forums, and social media, as early demand indicators. To validate our intuition, we present a proof-of-concept system that autonomously scrapes online discussions, infers real-world events, clusters and enriches them semantically, and correlates them with traffic measurements at a major Internet Exchange Point. This prototype predicted between 56-92% of society-driven traffic spikes after scraping a moderate amount of online discussions. We believe this approach opens new research opportunities in cross-domain forecasting, scheduling, demand anticipation, and society-informed decision making.

ArXiv.org
Peace, Justice and strong institutions
Openalex Percentile: Top 40%
Drug-Induced Hepatotoxicity and Protection
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Can LLMs Forecast Internet Traffic from Social Media? · ArXiv.org (2025) | TGRS Research Map | TGRS